Unlike the difference between 2- and 10- year interest rates, which is criticized as a recession signal because of policy distortions and is not yet in danger territory, forward rates may provide an apples-to-apples measure that already points to a recession within the next 12 months.
Unlike the difference between 2- and 10- year interest rates, which is criticized as a recession signal because of policy distortions and is not yet in danger territory, forward rates may provide an apples-to-apples measure that already points to a recession within the next 12 months.
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